Breaking News: Holliday would play in NY

Hold on to your seats:

Not a big surprise, but Newsday’s Ken Davidoff learned that Matt Holliday is willing to play in New York. The Mets or Yankees could consider the Scott Boras client, who is a free agent after the season. For what it’s worth, Holliday’s father Tom told Tyler Kepner of the New York Times in November that he’d like to see Holliday traded to the Yankees, or at least an East Coast team.

What’s your prediction for Holliday’s next contract? Will he top the four year, $82MM extension offered by the Rockies? And will the A’s trade him in July?

(via MLB Trade Rumors)

Obviously Holliday will say that he’s willing to play in NY. There happen to be two teams who play there who have a lot of money and could potentially use him.

I personally think the Yanks should pass. Holliday is a good hitter and mediocre defender who plays a non-premium position. You don’t pay big bucks for a left fielder unless they are an insanely good hitter. End of story.

The thing is though, I could definitely see Holliday’s price plummeting and I’d be surprised if he gets more than the $82 million the Rockies offered. Bobby Abreu only got $5 million. Dunn got $20 million. Heck, Manny only got a 1 year deal with an option. If the economy of baseball stays close to how it is now, who would be dumb enough to give over $80 million to Matt Holliday? There will be lots of OFs on the market next season, such as Johnny Damon, Jason Bay, and Rick Ankiel.

So bottom line, wherever Holliday ends up next season, I have a feeling it won’t be for as much money as he thinks.

Let next season’s hot stove begin

I mentioned a few days back that Adam Dunn might end up signing a one year contract and that would be good for the Yankees, as then Dunn would be a free agent again once Damon, Matsui, and Nady all potentially come off the books.

Well, looks like Manny is now being offered a one-year, $25 million deal from the Dodgers.

If both Manny and Dunn are available next offseason, the Yankees will have some serious options for LF/DH in 2010.

The “C word”

The “C word” in baseball refers to, of course, collusion, which there are some rumblings of in this slow offseason. PeteAbe looks at the free agent team that could still be put together as we head into February:

1B: Adam Dunn
2B: Orlando Hudson
SS: Orlando Cabrera
3B: Ty Wigginton
LF: Manny Ramirez
CF: Ken Griffey Jr.
RF: Bobby Abreu
C: Pudge Rodriguez
DH: Frank Thomas

SP: Ben Sheets
SP: Oliver Perez
SP: Tom Glavine
SP: Randy Wolf
SP: Braden Looper
RP: Juan Cruz
RP: Eric Gagne

Also: Andruw Jones, Joe Crede, Jim Edmonds, Cliff Floyd, Garret Anderson, Nomar Garciaparra, Rich Aurilia, Pedro Martinez, Tom Gordon, Eddie Guardado.

That team could win a couple of divisions in baseball. Any team with Dunn-Manny-Abreu at the heart of its order can compete. (Random aside – wouldn’t it make some sense for the Marlins to jump in and try to win this year? Their pattern has been that every few seasons (1997, 2003) they bring their payroll up to the middle of the pack and go for it. Well, a lot of their talent is starting to get close to arbitration. In theory it might make the most sense for them to wait one more year for their pitching to develop further, but with all these players available at such a low cost… well, they could probably grab a starter or 2 and a couple veteran hitters without breaking the bank and really turn the NL East into a dogfight. Just a thought.)

So what’s going on this offseason? Is it the economy? Collusion? I think it’s a lot of factors:

- Youth is the “hot” commodity right now. Every season there is something; in the past, it’s been veterans, pitching, OBP, bullpen, etc. This thing is generally dictated by the team(s) that had success the previous season (The White Sox with pitching, the A’s with OBP, etc). Well, after Tampa Bay showed the world what building through young, inexpensive players can accomplish, those are the players that are coveted. Why pay a veteran free agent a lot of money when you could give that position to a young, cheap player, who might perform just as well?

- The economy is awful. This isn’t nearly as big of a deal as some teams would probably like you to believe, but bottom line is no one really wants to add payroll right now. Even the Yankees, believe it or not.

- The real C word here might be professional congeniality. In general, a GM should want to sign players for as little as possible while at the same time, driving up the market so that other GMs have to spend as much as possible. Well this isn’t really quite the case. You see many GMs who are quick to publicly deny interest in a player. Why would they do such a thing? Well, for example, the LAofA Angels have no real reason to drive up the cost of a player the Chicago Cubs are trying to sign. Why? Well when the Angels try to sign someone, they don’t want the Cubs doing the same thing.

So if you notice, the only real times GMs seem to play that sort of game is with rivals. The Giants are hanging around in the Manny Ramirez negotiations because they don’t want the Dodgers getting a good deal. The Red Sox talked contract with C.C. Sabathia because they wanted to make sure the Yankees paid top dollar. But in general, GMs have learned that for the most part, it behooves them to play nice. The Yankees and Red Sox will never make a trade with each other, so it doesn’t matter, but otherwise, you want to be on good terms with as many teams as possible so you have plenty of teams to do business with.

So is there collusion going on here? Not really. It’s just business as usual as far as baseball is concerned.

Some Dunn speculation

From Buster Olney:

Dunn might draw interest from the Yankees, a team for which he is perfectly suited, if they could shed the contracts of two of Xavier Nady, Hideki Matsui and Nick Swisher.

First off – the Yankees don’t simply want to “shed” those players. Even Matsui – maybe he’s a little overpaid considering this market, but if he is indeed healthy, he could end up hitting in the 5 hole for the Yanks. Cashman says he expects a lot from Matsui this season.

If Cashman does find a good deal for Nady, then perhaps the Yankees jump in and try to sign Dunn, whose price is falling. Locking up Dunn for 2 or 3 seasons would give the Yankees insurance in case they lose Damon, Matsui, or both next season.

I agree with Buster – Dunn would be a good fit for the Yanks but it seems like a longshot that all the pieces would fall into place. But perhaps Dunn settles for a one year deal somewhere to reestablish his market and the Yankees sign him next season.

Would Pettitte really retire?

Seems like everyday there is a new article up about Andy Pettitte and the Yankees.  I have to admit, I’m surprised a deal hasn’t been reached.  I thought that after the buzz from the Teixiera signing faded a bit, Pettitte would come on board.

Rumor is though, that players like Abreu and Dunn could be facing $5 million deals.   So what kind of market could there possibly be for Pettitte, a player who says he only want to play for the Yanks?

It would seem that the only other legitimate option for Pettitte is to retire.  Is Pettitte really ready to call it quits?  His elbow is sound.  His family is happy with him playing.

Well, I don’t think he retires.  So I do think he will come back to the Yankees.  But Pettitte is now running the risk of damaging his once-immaculate reputation with Yankee fans.  Fans forgave him for the HGH-hoopla.  And after the Yankees stood by him, Pettitte said he wanted to return and it wasn’t about the money.

But it is about money, apparently.  So, if Pettitte continues to hold out over money, what will fans think?

The Ben Sheets market, which is just starting to develop, also makes the Pettitte situation intriguing.  If the Yankees could swoop in and grab Sheets from 2 years and $18 million, is it worth it for his upside rather than Pettitte’s reliability?  Probably not, but the longer this thing plays out, the more you begin to wonder.

No love for Swisher?

It’s been a busy winter for the Yankees and I, along with most Yankee fans, can’t wait for 2009. I’m cautiously optimistic about A.J. Burnett. I’m pumped about Mark Teixiera. Thinking about CC Sabathia makes me want to freeze myself so I can just wake up and have it be opening day.

But more than anyone, I can’t wait to see what Nick Swisher can do. This might come as a surprise, but I just can’t get over what a great pickup he is. I’ve discussed before as to why this is: just a year ago he was a marquee young player. He had one mediocre season and people have given up on him. Bottom line is I think he will be a very productive player for the Yankees moving forward.

However, supposedly he and Nady are on the trading block and apparently Swish is generating the most interest:

The Yankees are said to be getting more interest in Nick Swisher than Xavier Nady, who’s a year from free agency. Swisher, though, has $21 million left on his contract after his disappointing season with the White Sox, so the Yankees will be luckier to dispose of that contract if they can.

Dispose of that contract? Since when would the Yankees be lucky to dispose of a valuable player signed at a reasonable cost?

Swisher should be the everyday right fielder. He fields well. He’s versatile. He’s not a liability on the bases. He hits lefties. He hits righties. He hits for power.

Please, Cashman, do not trade him away.

Nady and Swisher rumors

So the hot Yankee rumor is that Cashman is actively shopping Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher.  I’ve said before that I think the Yankees would be smart to keep both of them because having depth is a good thing and injuries are unavoidable.  I especially want the Yankees to keep Nick Swisher because I think he is going to prove to be a tremendous value.  Well, this from SFGate.com:

I’ve been told by a good source that Yankees GM Brian Cashman wants to keep Swisher to replace Bobby Abreu in right field and deal Nady, who becomes a free agent after the 2009 season.

This makes me feel better, even if we have no way of verifying it. It makes no sense to trade Swisher when you just bought low on the guy and got him for almost nothing. Nady, on the other hand, is coming off of the best season of his career and it is quite possible that it will always remain the best season of his career.

So, while depth is important, trading Nady now might be the right move, especially when you consider his agent is Scott Boras, so after this year to retain Nady’s services you’ll have to pay him top market value.

I think Cashman was prepared to make Nady his full time right fielder if Tex didn’t come aboard. But now that he has, Cashman might as well explore his options. With an outfield of Damon, Gardner, and Swisher and Melky as the 4th, the Yanks could easily bring in a cheap power bat (say an Eric Hinske, Cliff Floyd type) to provide depth.  So if now is the time when Cashman can get the most value for Nady, then he probably should do it.  And if he holds on to him?  Well, that works too.

Draft Pick system needs to change

Buster Olney has up an article today that discusses how some players are having a tough time finding a deal because they have the “Type A” label on them – meaning the team that signs them must forfeit a draft pick. 

The most obvious case of this is Jason Varitek, though that is really the fault of his agent.  As a Yankee fan, it upsets me that Boras didn’t accept arbitration and stick the Sox with a below average catcher for $10 million.  I’m sure the Red Sox were delighted when Varitek declined.

Now, where will Varitek go?  I’ve said this before, but I seriously cannot think of a single team that would be interested in him, even for the league minimum.  I don’t see any other course of action except for him to crawl back to Boston on a cheap deal.

Obviously, this system needs to be fixed.  The way it is presently consistuted, the Type A tag affects a given player tremendously when really it should be affecting the team.  I think the arbitration element of it should be removed entirely; the whole point of this system is to keep to big market teams from signing everyone else’s players without consequence.  But if the small market teams can’t afford to offer arbitration anyways, what’s the point?  I mean the Yankees couldn’t afford (relatively) to offer arbitration to their free agents.

I think there should be 2 or 3 levels of players (and they should be evaluated using something more accurate than the current ranking system) and a team that loses a free agent will receive draft picks accordingly.  (Example: Make a “sandwich” round after round 1 and round 2 and then teams that lose a Type A would get a 1st and a 2nd, Type B just a first, and Type C just a 2nd.)

This compensation shouldn’t have anything to do with arbitration, however.  You lose a free agent, you get a pick (or picks). 

Obviously though, this would not hurt the signing teams as much.  So instead, you could just make the penalties relative to the team.  So if a team signs more than 1 type A or more than 2 type Bs (or whatever) they would simply lose their pick. 

I’m a Yankee fan and a system like this would stand to hurt the Yankees more than anyone else, because they are the team most likely to go out and sign multiple big names (as this offseason has shown us). 

Under that kind of a system, a player like Varitek could sign with the Marlins and the Marlins wouldn’t have to give up anything and the Sox would get a sandwich pick or two.  If the Yankees signed Varitek though, they would lose one of their draft picks, since they’ve already signed so many top-flight free agents – which I think is fair. 

   

Apparently teams can’t choose who they sign

This from Peter Gammons (via Boston.com):

For instance, I know Derek Lowe feels very strongly that if A.J. Burnett is making $16 million a year, why am I not making a year? But this is not arbitration, this is the market, and the fact is there’s no market [for him] at $16 million. Now, there could have been. He could have gotten four-times-$15 million from the Yankees, but A.J. Burnett’s agents stopped Scott Boras [who is Lowe's agent] and beat him to the Yankees. The Yankees wanted Lowe, but A.J. Burnett’s agents did a better job.

How is this even remotely possible? How could Burnett’s agents “stop” Scott Boras? If the Yankees wanted Lowe more than Burnett, wouldn’t they have signed Lowe? Did Burnett’s agents threaten Cashman’s family or something? I mean it’s not like the Yankees don’t have a top notch scouting department. They knew what their options were. The Yankees had to go to a 5th year to keep Burnett away from the Braves. If they thought Lowe was the better sign, they would have offered him that money. They’re the Yankees. They get who they want. You’d think the Sabathia and Teixiera signings would make that obvious.

These comments sound like sour grapes against Scott Boras for screwing over the Red Sox (and Red Sox players) recently (Got Manny out of Boston, cost Varitek money and will likely get him out of Boston, kept Tex from Boston, etc). And he makes the Yankees sound like the naive corporation that just throws money at anything with no plan, which is pretty much what ESPN wants them to be. Of course, an educated fan would know better than that I’d hope.

Who can talk themselves into Oliver Perez?

On Sunday, the Post ran a (not surprisingly) moronic article stating the Yanks should sign Oliver Perez instead of Pettitte because they’d be seeking “basically” the same dollars.  This is, of course, not true, and neither is this:

Signing Perez would cement the Yankees’ rotation for years to come and would give them flexibility with Joba Chamberlain.

1 – They don’t need flexibility with Chamberlain. He’s a starter. 2 – Cement the rotation for years? Is this for real? We are talking about Oliver Perez, right?

I seriously thought this article was onion-like satire at first.

Today, Ken Rosenthal has this to say about Perez:

Oliver Perez, 27, is left-handed, eight years younger than Lowe and accustomed to pitching in New York. He also got married in mid-December, a sign of his growing maturity.

Getting married is now a reason why a free agent could start playing better? Just when I thought I saw it all…

I know people get tired of waiting for free agents to sign, but let’s not start talking ourselves into Ollie Perez just yet. This is how guys like him end up with terrible contracts; some crazy GM will panic and start using the same logic.