I like following Buster Olney’s chats. He’s well informed. He’s a good writer. He’s not really a stat head, but he doesn’t ignore them either. Anyways, these were some of his Yankee-related notes from his last chat:
CC (Atlanta): I see the Braves going after established starters. How does Peavy and Lowe sound?
Buster Olney: I think you’ll get Peavy, in the end, but you won’t get Lowe — I’d bet Lowe turns down a big offer from the Yankees to sign with Boston.
I would be happy to see Peavy end up in Atlanta. Listen, the Yankees do not want Jake Peavy. I think he makes even less sense than Santana. Consider:
* He doesn’t want to play in New York or the AL so to get him to do so would require additional guaranteed dollars. So at that point, he no longer has a “reasonable” contract.
* Peavy has had great numbers but he’s been pitching in the NL in a park that is pitcher-friendly. Whether or not he’d be a dominant pitcher in the AL East is debatable.
* With so many teams interested, trading Peavy will require major talent going back in return – think Hughes, Austin Jackson, and someone else. That’s way too much talent to give up for a guy with the aforementioned risks.
As for Lowe, I have no problem with him signing with Boston. I’ve said it before, but it’s worth repeating: just because Lowe has “AL East experience,” it doesn’t mean it was good experience. Lowe has one good season as a starter (his first) and then one good playoff run (2004). He wasn’t in the rotation to begin the playoffs and the Yankees routinely beat up on him during the season.
Dave (NY): I know you’ve said Cashman wouldn’t make Tex a priority. How do things stand on that front? I’d rather have CC myself.
Buster Olney: Dave
— they’ll make him an offer they’re comfortable with — say, 6 years,
$18 million a year — but they won’t sniff the 10/200 that has been
rumored. If the Red Sox or Orioles take Teixeira much higher than the
Yankees, I don’t think they’ll chase it. On the other hand, all bets
are off when it comes to CC — they’ll go crazy to get him.
In some ways, this logic seems a little off. The Yankees last year had a huge problem scoring runs. Teixeira has a better probability of being effective throughout the length of a long term deal. The Yankees don’t have nearly the type of minor league talent when it comes to position players.
However, pitching wins and I think the Yankees are determined to have a dominant rotation – you never know when a #1 starter will be available as a free agent again.
Jay (Boston): What are the chances the Red Sox land Peavey [sic] or CC?
Buster Olney: Jay:
They could get Peavy if he agreed to it, but I don’t think they’ll want
to give up the prospects to make it happen. And if CC is going to play
back East in a big market, he’ll probably play for the Yankees, who are
prepared to hand over New England and just about anything else CC wants
to sign him.
I would be very surprised to see the Red Sox be major plays in either of those two. The Red Sox have a lot of pitching depth (Dice-K, Beckett, Lester, Wakefield, Masterson, Bucholz, Bowden, etc). It would be counterproductive for them to bring in high priced guys and potentially block the development (or trade away) the young guys.
And let’s face it, the Yankees biggest obstacle in signing C.C. is location. If C.C. relocates to the northeast, it will be with the Yanks.
An interesting aside: If the Yankees are going “crazy” to get Sabathia, what does that mean? More than 7 years? $200 million?